January 28, 2023

Bitcoin’s HODL theory has lost steam within the past few months. That came as markets shifted to favor near-term profits. And that affected BTC’s performance. Especially the crypto’s ability to attain medium- to long-term goals.

BTC’s price actions could not achieve its mid-term goals and hovered within the lower range within the past six months. That’s despite the sharp discount within the periods, plus massive accumulation amid dips. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s up remained limited as occasional downsides emerged.

Consequently, long-term holders have failed to stay profitable. BTC’s 180-day MVRV ratio demonstrated this outcome. The index wavered in the negative region for the past six months. The asset’s 6-month supply in profit currently swayed in the lower range.

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The decline during this phase shows that Hodlers who purchased Bitcoin earlies are out of money. Also, it supports the short-term profits theory where traders that scooped around June lows noted some profits.

The usual tale in BTC’s profitability is near-term gains remained preferable. That suggests massive buying momentum over the past few months experienced limited upside.

An Uncommon Advantage

BTC’s present near-term profitability pursuit translates to smoothness in forecasting price floors and selling pressure. For instance, retesting 2017 peaks confirmed solid demand around the $20K value area.

BTC has enjoyed massive comebacks following each dip. And that could have accounted for the strategy change to favor near-term opportunities. Moreover, this outcome reflects Wyckoff distribution and accumulation.

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Meantime, macroeconomic situations have impacted the present near-term returns preference. The commodities and crypto markets have faced pressure from regulators, following hawkish stances. That saw the predictions of massive bullish recoveries in the near-term fading.

Only Short-Term?

Many market players are accumulating in expectation of long-term recoveries regardless of near-term profit booking. LTHs (long-term holders) are still adopting the dollar-cost average approach as the bear market nears a tail end.

Furthermore, BTC could also be close to its cycle’s price floor as holding at low values limits further downsides for the token. Indeed, patience and long-term goals remain crucial for investors.

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What are your views about the above narrative? Feel free to comment below.


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