November 30, 2023
  • Bitcoin’s fractal setup predicted declines towards the $20K value area.
  • The bellwether crypto will confirm this bearish wave if it violates the $30K mark (on its weekly price chart).
  • Bitcoin needs a higher high beyond $52K to cancel the bearish narrative.

Bitcoin (BTC) has its price below its desired psychological mark of $30,000. The bellwether crypto has hovered around this value region since the previous month. Moreover, intraday volatility doesn’t matter as far as a macro standpoint is concerned since BTC remained primed for massive losses that dragged it towards the 2017 low.

BTC Potential Response to First Recession

While technicals might print a partial picture of the inevitable crash, evaluating currency financial market conditions presents the other half. The latest Ecoinometrics reports revealed that the United States interest rates hit a four-decade high. Meanwhile, the Fed might react by reducing interest rates.

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Surprisingly, colossal recessions emerged the past couple of times that happened. Some examples are the 2020 COVID crash, the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the 1999-200 DOTCOM bubble.

All these scenarios had risk assets such as stocks on a brutal fall. Moreover, the assets began recovering after recessions. On the other hand, the store of wealth Gold saw relatively slight declines and recovered quicker.

Bitcoin has presented a high correlation with stocks recently and seemed not ready for decouples anytime soon. The passionate correlation began after the pandemic and persisted to date.

Maintaining such trends increase the chances of Bitcoin undergoing a similar fate as stocks over the past recessions. Though inevitable, the narrative shows that BTC can suffer massive declines during crises.

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BTC Readies for Massive Crash

Bitcoin price reveals a bear flag pattern within a continuing bear flag on its 24-hour chart. Meanwhile, a massive technical setup catalyzed a pessimistic breakout on 6 May and has crashed since. That translated to a 36% decline within a week. Meanwhile, BTC’s fall from $69K ATH to $32.8K between 10 November 2021 and 24 January 2022 formed the setup’s flagpole.

Flags are cryptos’ continuation setups, and the current one predicts an extended crash towards $20K, obtained from adding the flagpole’s length to the $38,305 breakout level, which it breached on 6 May.

Surprisingly, the decline from the larger flag formed a smaller one amidst consolidation. Nevertheless, the technical pattern predicts a 30% decline to $20,000, presenting a confluence while supporting the broader formation.

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Why things appear brutally bearish for BTC, a weekly or daily candle closing beyond $52K will annul the macro standpoint bearish narrative through a higher high. That can see BTC stretching higher to retest the psychological level at $60K.

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